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Steve van hool

Petrol, and diesel sales banned by 2030!

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Oh dear, legislation is being bought forward to ban the sale of new petrol, and diesel powered vehicles by 2030, I may be wrong but I don't think an electric car will quicken the pulse the way a petrol one can when  you drive it, ever.

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Hi,

 

It's been on the horizon for a number of years now and prices will begin to reduce as more models become available from the various manufacturers. As that happens, the mandatory costs for running an existing/older fossil fueled car will begin to ramp up in order to coerce more of the driving public - not just enthusiasts, to take up an electric car. 

 

Most of the driving public don't give two hoots about the enjoyment of driving nor if it's a petrol or diesel powered car, they just want to get from A to B. 

Enthusiasts will still be able to drive their petrol cars, it's just it'll cost a significant amount more than it does currently to do so and to the extent it'll perhaps only really be Porsche and higher brands you'll see on the road every so often. Yes, some 'rare' and 'sought after' BMW's, Mercs, Audi's, Fords, Jap cars will still be seen on the roads and will be owned by enthusiasts with pockets deep enough to run a petrol powered car. Most of the currently existing older 'normal' variant cars and the ones coming out over the next couple of years will eventually be priced off the road and be recycled etc. 

 

With todays technology, electric cars can perform up at Super car level in terms of acceleration. Better handling will develop as the battery packs evolve technologically and the whole range anxiety thing has been pretty much resolved with todays technology, with perhaps a little more to go in order to quel this aspect entirely over the next couple years. The only thing 'missing' is of course an exhaust note. Tech already exists to provide artificial sound through a conventional exhaust back box so this could be done in order to 'add that' back in as it were. 

 

I think only the very high end super and hyper cars will have a petrol powered variant available in markets where a ban isn't in place, but likely those brands will have other models which are hybrids. I think up to now, Lamborghini have said they'll always develop a V12 engine so perhaps would be the same for similar competing brands. Smaller specialists 'might' have to purchase in electric powerplants though. Bentley have recently announced they'll make the switch to all electric by 2030, so the 'luxury' high end will perhaps not have any petrol powered variants available. 

 

What will this do to cars currently regarded as icons and sought after ? I suspect the very best examples will be purchased by those with deep enough pockets to run them in the future and pay the increased/inflated charges to do so. The 'midde' and 'entry level' condition examples of the same might get saved and restored etc, but I suspect plenty will end up on the scrap heap, so actual selling prices of those will perhaps reduce over the next 5/10 years. 

 

Cheers, Dennis!

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1 hour ago, Steve van hool said:

Oh dear, legislation is being bought forward to ban the sale of new petrol, and diesel powered vehicles by 2030, I may be wrong but I don't think an electric car will quicken the pulse the way a petrol one can when  you drive it, ever.


Where will the government then get all their lost revenue from the loss in petrol or diesel sales........I have a feeling what’s around the corner for the then electric motorist? :roll:

Edited by Style5

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The biggest issue with this move, is that we don't have the infrastructure to support the amount of EV cars they want us to have. 

 

1) Manufacturers need to have a Generic socket so that all chargers can be built with these, making it similar to a Petrol/Diesel pump. 

2) Chargers; there's not enough of them to support the amount of cars & due to the charging time you need more than you would do at a Petrol station - people who live in flats, terraced houses, housing without parking will not have the ability to charge at home. 

3) Range. No EV can compete with the likes of an E61 touring, or the alike, with a 500 mile range. I can happily drive from my house to Scotland (400 miles) at a decent motorway speed without needing to stop for fuel.

 

For someone who does short journeys an EV is probably fine. But not for myself who does a lot of miles and most of which are long distance/full day drives. 

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8 hours ago, Style5 said:


Where will the government then get all their lost revenue from the loss in petrol or diesel sales........I have a feeling what’s around the corner for the then electric motorist? :roll:

 

absolutely. If you consider most the cost of combustion fuel we pay is taxes & VAT - they will loose Billions. An EV is going to be a lot more expensive to run compared to an ICE. 

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People will have moaned about steam power replacing horses, then decades later, different people will have moaned about internal combustion replacing steam. The reason people love a particular form of transport is mostly just because that’s what they grew up with.
 

At the end of the day, this needs to happen. People who love petrol engined cars will just have to be sad about it if they can’t get over it. Yes, the infrastructure will need to improve. Yes, taxes will probably increase once EVs become the default choice. These aren’t revelations that will suddenly make people realise EVs are a bad idea, they’re just obvious things we have to accept.

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I'm wondering if this is media miss reporting again. Is it a bit like DIESEL IS DIRTY, but the reality of the situations is old diesels are polluting but new diesels are rather clean.

Does the headline really mean new cars powered by only diesel or only petrol will be banned and all car will have to be Mild Hybrid, Hybrid, plug in Hybrid or EV

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27 minutes ago, Stressed said:

I'm wondering if this is media miss reporting again. Is it a bit like DIESEL IS DIRTY, but the reality of the situations is old diesels are polluting but new diesels are rather clean.

Does the headline really mean new cars powered by only diesel or only petrol will be banned and all car will have to be Mild Hybrid, Hybrid, plug in Hybrid or EV

All the reporting I’ve seen seems accurate - I.e. that the sale of new IC engined cars will be banned, but the sale of hybrids can continue (for a while, at least).

 

The only ‘misreporting’ I’ve seen has been on car forums where people didn’t read the articles properly and assumed it was a complete ban on IC cars on the road, rather than just on the sale of new ones.

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11 hours ago, Style5 said:


Where will the government then get all their lost revenue from the loss in petrol or diesel sales........I have a feeling what’s around the corner for the then electric motorist? :roll:

 

2 hours ago, dj1233 said:

The biggest issue with this move, is that we don't have the infrastructure to support the amount of EV cars they want us to have. 

 

1) Manufacturers need to have a Generic socket so that all chargers can be built with these, making it similar to a Petrol/Diesel pump. 

2) Chargers; there's not enough of them to support the amount of cars & due to the charging time you need more than you would do at a Petrol station - people who live in flats, terraced houses, housing without parking will not have the ability to charge at home. 

3) Range. No EV can compete with the likes of an E61 touring, or the alike, with a 500 mile range. I can happily drive from my house to Scotland (400 miles) at a decent motorway speed without needing to stop for fuel.

 

For someone who does short journeys an EV is probably fine. But not for myself who does a lot of miles and most of which are long distance/full day drives. 

 

Hi

 

Style 5 - Taxes will be added elsewhere to existing tax rates and where new aspects come about, those will have a new tax created for it. For instance, there's 'talk' now of a 'working from home tax'. Keep in mind it'll be a phased 'changeover' as it were, so tax rates will vary as things progress., 

 

dj1233 - It wouldn't be too difficult for the industry to standardize to a universal type socket. There's research and development within the scientific industry where experimental technologies are being created and tested. Perhaps over 12/18 months ago, a technology for battery composition meant a zero to 75% (I think thats how much it was) charge level in about 15 minutes. The range of that cell was around 250 miles (again from memory) Yes, that's 10 minutes more than filling up the average tank of petrol/diesel. Thinking practically, a driver could pull into a charging station, buy a coffee & croissant and have a 10 minute journey break and then be on their way. This leads into your 3rd point where it is recommended to take a break on long distance drives. As technology develops, perhaps over the next few years, battery tech may well mean a 5 minute charge from zero to 75% capacity and a 300/400 mile range. 

 

In addition to above, the generation of electricity in a better/more efficient/cleaner way will be happening due to the UK government's commitment to being carbon zero by 2050 and again, new technology and development of existing tech will move to providing that. 

 

For HGV's and other specialist road transportation, I suspect diesel engines will still be in use but with more efficiency and cleaner burning engines (somehow) whilst there's more development on scaling up the electric tech to be able to move those larger vehicles around. 

 

Cheers, Dennis!

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Putting the enthusiast aside I see this as a bigger issue than just the private motor car and what powers it. Society needs to fundamentally reassess how it uses the energy we have and how we use the car.

 

Simply changing the "fuel' from fossil to electric and using cars as we do currently isn't the answer; the status quo needs to change - If covid has shown us one thing its that many of use don't need to commute to work, the high street (whilst nice) isn't essential for retail and needs to rethink its purpose, our houses are chronically inefficient and don't often lend themselves to home working.

 

Really we need a more localised society where by reliance on the car for daily tasks is diminished - car depended housing developments should be banned and more community based developments encouraged for social purposes where can walk/ cycle / bus and then perhaps with car share to schools/ community uses / pub.

 

I'm not advocating amazon ruling the world but the infrastructure is in place to supply our food and other whims (really has anyone not been able to get something they really needed this year?) and so we won't need a car to drive to a retail park/ supermarket.

 

Developments would be to passiv haus standards and carbon neutral with any heating needed by a local CHP generation, solar electric and batteries so that we use the grid more wisely for say rail or industry generating our personal needs locally ie your house charges your car FoC

 

We really don't often need a car with a 500mile range so perhaps better trains or hire a vehicle for those trips. Diesel / petrol won't go away - HGV's, farming etc won't go electric over night so again we use the fuel better.

 

I'm quite bored of the electric doesn't work argument - it has its flaws but tech will improve - but fundamentally it will take a societal and mental shift and we should embrace it.

 

I love the car but its days are numbered in its current form and the way its used - in the future it will be like preserved railways - one visits say Goodwood for a blast of nostalgia but you get there a car charged for free from home, or electric bus.

 

History will look back on us and go WTF - you did what! - like smoking, drink driving, child labour etc etc things change.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I agree with Duncan. COVID has proved one thing in that home working is possible and can work. I had been saying it for years to my company and now suddenly there is a complete 180 for it. So many benefits it’s shown including my quality of life radically improving, my safety (road accidents), less fuel, less CO2.  This is what the Government wants so why was it encouraging people to get back to the office ? 
TBH, it is inevitable EV’s are now coming so as long as I can keep and drive my classic for 1000 miles a year, I’m ok with it. Just wonder what is going to generate all the electricity that will be needed. 

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2 minutes ago, Style5 said:

TBH, it is inevitable EV’s are now coming so as long as I can keep and drive my classic for 1000 miles a year, I’m ok with it. Just wonder what is going to generate all the electricity that will be needed.  

 

That's my point - we need to reconsider the big picture, just swapping to EV doesn't work. Society needs to think how it manages its resources better. Throwing more power at the problem isn't the answer!

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2 hours ago, DennisCooper said:

 

 

Hi

 

Style 5 - Taxes will be added elsewhere to existing tax rates and where new aspects come about, those will have a new tax created for it. For instance, there's 'talk' now of a 'working from home tax'. Keep in mind it'll be a phased 'changeover' as it were, so tax rates will vary as things progress., 

 

dj1233 - It wouldn't be too difficult for the industry to standardize to a universal type socket. There's research and development within the scientific industry where experimental technologies are being created and tested. Perhaps over 12/18 months ago, a technology for battery composition meant a zero to 75% (I think thats how much it was) charge level in about 15 minutes. The range of that cell was around 250 miles (again from memory) Yes, that's 10 minutes more than filling up the average tank of petrol/diesel. Thinking practically, a driver could pull into a charging station, buy a coffee & croissant and have a 10 minute journey break and then be on their way. This leads into your 3rd point where it is recommended to take a break on long distance drives. As technology develops, perhaps over the next few years, battery tech may well mean a 5 minute charge from zero to 75% capacity and a 300/400 mile range. 

 

In addition to above, the generation of electricity in a better/more efficient/cleaner way will be happening due to the UK government's commitment to being carbon zero by 2050 and again, new technology and development of existing tech will move to providing that. 

 

For HGV's and other specialist road transportation, I suspect diesel engines will still be in use but with more efficiency and cleaner burning engines (somehow) whilst there's more development on scaling up the electric tech to be able to move those larger vehicles around. 

 

Cheers, Dennis!

 

The issue is in 10 years, all the main manufacturers will have to be producing more EV's than ICE vehicles. So now you need to look at a component level of things; Where do all these materials come from to produce the batteries? And all the materials to build all the components to build the Electric cars? It's a completely industry overhaul that needs to happen, before you even get to my consumer points. I'm not against EV's in any way, but we are more than 10 years from it being the norm. 

The electric component market currently is already at a fine balance of product/demand on a normal day and forecast. There's already been part allocation within the last 2 years, which lasted 18 months - note none of this was due to factory closures due to fires/natural disasters etc it was due to shortage of the core material used to build the components. And there's another allocation year coming up too, due to the increase in demand. And all this is without 5G & full production level EV's being produced.

The capacity does not exist in this market, and it will be years before they are able to support it. A fab unit costs circa 1BN USD to build, and only one new one was built in the last 5 years or so by a leading manufacturer who invested in the extra capacity. You'll probably need another 5 of these to keep up with the demand required with new technology . . . . 

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I think everyone is missing the main point about all of this.  Namely, where in the name of the missionary position are countless folk like me getting the money for a used electric car?  We are the 'cast offs' brigade, driving ten to 20 year old big beasties like my 2003 e60 simply because that is all we can afford.  I couldn't agree more that it is not only inevitable but essential that emissions are cut, but surely although 2030 is the proposed cut off date to make new diesel and petrol vehicles, they will have to allow the use of our dinasours for quite a while after that,  If I am lucky enough to be around in 2030 it would be tipping me into my 80th year so thankfully I will be driving F.A. :D

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On top of all that, the Chancellor is now muting the idea of road pricing, maybe there are too many cars on our roads today, whatever the future holds, I hope there will still be a place for enthusiasts of differing car marques, and the IC engine. You know when you take your car out for a drive just for the hell of it, and enjoy it.

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6 hours ago, oldjohnny said:

I think everyone is missing the main point about all of this.  Namely, where in the name of the missionary position are countless folk like me getting the money for a used electric car?  We are the 'cast offs' brigade, driving ten to 20 year old big beasties like my 2003 e60 simply because that is all we can afford.  I couldn't agree more that it is not only inevitable but essential that emissions are cut, but surely although 2030 is the proposed cut off date to make new diesel and petrol vehicles, they will have to allow the use of our dinasours for quite a while after that,  If I am lucky enough to be around in 2030 it would be tipping me into my 80th year so thankfully I will be driving F.A. :D


I’m not sure that is the main point, given that the 2030 date is just for the sale of new cars and no one is currently talking about a date where IC cars will be banned from the road. Indeed, it’s unlikely they ever will - either they will just disappear slowly as older cars get scrapped, or if that happens too slowly they will probably just be taxed heavily enough that only the most devoted enthusiasts will want to run them.

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It's the same crap here in Ireland with a deadline of 2030 to ban sales of non zero emissions cars. So that's hybrids gone too. Then we have the 2045 deadline of no more NCT (MOT) certificates for non zero emission cars. 

 

Personally I think this big push is too much, too soon. As mentioned, low earners will suffer under this. There's plenty of 15-20 year old cars still in daily use here at the moment but I'm not sure it would be viable for these people to buy a 10-15 year old electric car when the time comes.

This whole move will make cars much more disposable, which will keep the manufacturers happy at least. But cars with a shorter life will have an environmental knock-on effect, which may very well counter-act the objectives of going electric in the first place. 

 

Keliuss

Edited by Keliuss

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On 16/11/2020 at 18:08, Spandex said:


I’m not sure that is the main point, given that the 2030 date is just for the sale of new cars and no one is currently talking about a date where IC cars will be banned from the road. Indeed, it’s unlikely they ever will - either they will just disappear slowly as older cars get scrapped, or if that happens too slowly they will probably just be taxed heavily enough that only the most devoted enthusiasts will want to run them.

Let's say it does all happen in 2030 (or whenever, it will happen) and no more ICE cars are sold. I would think that the pressure from the Government would be not far short of immediate to hike up costs for ICE vehicles, whether through road tax, MOT cost and/or strictness of test, fuel tax - any or all! 

Edited by Loadmaster

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1 hour ago, Loadmaster said:

Let's say it does all happen in 2030 (or whenever, it will happen) and no more ICE cars are sold. I would think that the pressure from the Government would be not far short of immediate to hike up costs for ICE vehicles, whether through road tax, MOT cost and/or strictness of test, fuel tax - any or all! 

They will also do their best to make running an ICE powered vehicle socially unacceptable. I can’t see the cars we love surviving for that much longer in the face of this. It needs to happen though so it is what it is. 

I’ll hang on to my M cars for as long as possible but I can’t see me being able to run them all in the long term.

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44 minutes ago, duncan-uk said:

Surely road pricing would be the way?

 

No, I think road tax, and electricity tax will come in for EV's, but that is further down the line, there is already road pricing in all but name, it's added onto the fuel you need for every journey you make.

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Yes you pay per mile for fuel but i think it would be hard sell politically to up the RFL for 0 rated EV's or "fuel" tax on electricity so it has to be fair across the board so road pricing would do that.

 

There needs to be an economic argument for people to adopt EV's until the tech is fully main stream i'd suggest.

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Road pricing would only be fair if RFL was abolished for " normal" cars as well. It was/is a sweetener to get folk to buy EV's, once we have all made the switch, the government  will need to get the money back somehow.  

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