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Steve van hool

Petrol, and diesel sales banned by 2030!

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3 hours ago, Loadmaster said:

Let's say it does all happen in 2030 (or whenever, it will happen) and no more ICE cars are sold. I would think that the pressure from the Government would be not far short of immediate to hike up costs for ICE vehicles, whether through road tax, MOT cost and/or strictness of test, fuel tax - any or all! 

I’m sure the tax will increase, just as it has been over the years. But I don’t see it being an immediate ‘hike’ as soon as new IC sales end.

 

Tax is used here as a means to encourage desirable behaviour. Once the sale of new IC vehicles ends, the ‘desirable behaviour’ will be driven at a much faster rate purely because people who want a new car will suddenly have no choice. So increasing tax on existing IC vehicles won’t have the same degree of effect as it would when buying a new IC car was an option. What’s more likely is the introduction of scrappage type schemes to try to mop up some people who weren’t planning on buying a new car, but could be persuaded, then a gradual increase in tax on IC vehicles. The government (no matter what you think of them, and I really don’t think much of them) won’t want to price poorer people out of car ownership entirely by making old IC cars too expensive to run, while new EV cars are too expensive to buy in the first place. It will be a balancing act for a very long time.

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7 hours ago, Spandex said:

The government (no matter what you think of them, and I really don’t think much of them) won’t want to price poorer people out of car ownership...... 

Isn't this what's happening with London's ULEZ? 

 

Unless you can afford a car that's compliant, you either bin your old jalopy or stump up over £3k per year in ULEZ fees.

Edited by Loadmaster

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51 minutes ago, Loadmaster said:

Isn't this what's happening with London's ULEZ? 

 

Unless you can afford a car that's compliant, you either bin your old jalopy or stump up over £3k per year in ULEZ fees.

Not exactly, no. Residents are currently exempt from ULEZ charges and anyway, a large proportion of them would rarely drive in London. The ULEZ mainly affects people coming into London from outside and the majority of these will be doing so for commercial reasons (where their company will have to foot the bill, not them). People on low incomes are not commuting into central London by car.

Edited by Spandex

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The problem with ULEZ is that TFL are extending it out to the north and south circular. This takes in load of areas that have social housing and less well paid working class people. These people do have cars and do drive in their areas but can NOT afford new cars, cannot afford ulez charges. Looking at the ULEZ plans they only propose a discount for a period of time I believe its about a year. Low paid workers still won't be able to afford a new car in a year.

I look at the number of emergency service working that work in London, do not get ULEZ exemption and can't afford a new car and can't afford the expencive public transport costs. 

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1 hour ago, Spandex said:

Not exactly, no. Residents are currently exempt from ULEZ charges and anyway, a large proportion of them would rarely drive in London. The ULEZ mainly affects people coming into London from outside and the majority of these will be doing so for commercial reasons (where their company will have to foot the bill, not them). People on low incomes are not commuting into central London by car.

I must admit, I didn't know that is currently how it works. However, as noted by Stressed above, the freebie/discount won't be available for ever. 

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42 minutes ago, Loadmaster said:

I must admit, I didn't know that is currently how it works. However, as noted by Stressed above, the freebie/discount won't be available for ever. 

No, I think it ends next year. However my other point stands - low income residents of the ULEZ aren’t frequently driving private cars in London anyway.

 

Looking at the figures it seems the number of cars using the zone daily has reduced by about 5% (although the report I’ve seen only compares the figures to the month before the ULEZ was introduced rather than monthly averages for previous years, so I don’t know if there’s normally a seasonal variation in traffic that would affect those figures). The larger change has been in the type of vehicle, where it looks like a significant number of drivers have swapped non-compliant cars for compliant ones. There certainly doesn’t appear to be any evidence that people have been priced out of car ownership.

 

Honestly, I don’t think the ULEZ is a good example of the government making car ownership too expensive for people with lower incomes. Firstly, London is an outlier when it comes to transport because of its extensive public transport network. No sane person regularly commutes by private car into or within central London. Secondly, the ULEZ requirements don’t really stop people buying cheap cars. Any petrol car from the last 15 years will be compliant and I think we all know that includes some extremely cheap old bangers.

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5 hours ago, Spandex said:

No, I think it ends next year. However my other point stands - low income residents of the ULEZ aren’t frequently driving private cars in London anyway.

I'm sure you are quite right about the driving into London part, but as an ex South Londoner from Streatham (St. Reatham :lol:) I still occasionally go up that way, including into Tooting and Balham where ULEZ will cover. Believe me, there are shed loads of cars parked up and driving about (okay, not all local obviously) that will not meet ULEZ requirements, therefore presenting hundreds (thousands) of owners with difficult decisions to come to terms with.

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I lived and worked in London for years, and still regularly go in for meetings (well, not so much this year, obvs) and I agree there appear to be loads of non-compliant cars there, but I don’t believe they’re owned by people who simply can’t afford to change cars. More likely they’re owned by people with plenty of money (hence having a parking space or being able to afford parking in central London) but no incentive to change car because it’s used so infrequently.

 

And that raises another reason why it’s not likely to massively impact  people on low incomes living in central London - they probably don’t have anywhere to park a car regardless of whether or not they could afford to run one.

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^^^^^^^

Well, I guess only time will tell and it'll be interesting to see how things eventually pan out.

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9 hours ago, Spandex said:

 low income residents of the ULEZ aren’t frequently driving private cars in London anyway.

 

ULEZ extend to the north and south circular from October 2021 therefore that will mean thousands of low income people who own cars will be within the zone!

I'm not saying everyone is low income or owns a car but for example Newham east London is within the extended ULEZ has a population of 350K people, tower hamlets over 300k people. Both boroughs known for lower income people.

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Understood, but its not just a question of incomes. It’s about car ownership and use.

 

I’m not particularly trying to defend the ULEZ, but it was brought up as a demonstration that the government wouldn’t have any qualms about pricing every low income person in the country out of car ownership. I don’t think it demonstrates that because the effect of the ULEZ isn’t so dramatic - plenty of sub £1000 cars are ULEZ compliant, plenty of London residents don’t have cars (or even parking spaces), those that do aren’t likely to use their cars daily and the infrastructure in London means almost everyone has access to an extremely convenient public transport network.

 

A few of my friends who live inside the A406, but outside the current ULEZ, don’t own cars, despite having the funds and the driveways. They just grab a Zip Car when they want to go anywhere outside London. They’re admittedly not ‘low income’, but they’re a good example of how a lot of Londoners approach car ownership.

Edited by Spandex

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