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Coronavirus/Covid19

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19 hours ago, nealpina said:

Wasn't labour in Government during the first outbreak of foot and mouth.

 

Anyway  my opinion is: As this is an unprecedented pandemic, I am currently giving the authority certain slack.  When this is over we will then have time to analyse what we got wrong, what we could have got more right, and right.  

 

All the same to me. This is not a Third-World Banana Republic, we have pretty good intelligence and think-tank community. I have already posted Event 201 video (October 2019) which highlights shortcomings and recommendations for a pandemic like this. The issue is not the virus, but what liberties we will have to further surrender. CCP is not the society I want to live in.

Edited by jake13

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An update on all statistics as reported by the ONS for England & Wales, plus the separately reported data from Scotland & NI.

 

Links included to data source plus any notes also included. 

 

The next ONS file is due out on the 14th, I will update this post when that file is out as the past week has, reportedly, been the heaviest death toll so far.
England & Wales Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 27th:
150,057
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
647

Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
153,868

Difference:
-3,811 (less deaths in 2020)

Main points from latest release

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
A total of 150,047 deaths were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 27 March 2020 (year to date), and of these, 647 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (0.4%); including deaths that occurred up to 27 March but were registered up to 1 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 1,639.
For deaths that occurred up to 27 March, there were 1,568 deaths in England registered by 1 April involving COVID-19 compared with 1,649 deaths reported by NHS England for the same period in a newly published dataset.
Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
Please note, where Easter falls in previous years will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison.
Notes

The table includes number of deaths for which the underlying cause was coded to respiratory diseases as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Tenth Revision (ICD-10), as well as age group, sex and by area of usual residence.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales



Scotland figures:
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 30th:
17,553
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
354

Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
17,473

Difference:
80 (increased)

As at 5th April , there have been a total of 354 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16th March 2020.
Of the total number of deaths registered in week 14 (30 March – 5 April), there were 282 where COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate (16.2% of the total) an increase of 220 from the previous week (23 – 29 March).
Over 60% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 75 or over.
This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 whereas these figures include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

NI Figures

Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 3rd):
4,386
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
65

Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
4,509

Difference:
123 (less)

https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths

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On 3 April 2020 at 22:38, sharkfan said:

In drawing the comparison between the UK and Italy I have deliberately ignored the infection rate as compared to the other european countries Britain is admittedly and clearly only testing those who end up in hospital rather than the broader testing of all those that display symptoms.

 

By the end of tomorrow I rather suspect we will have easily surpassed Italy's 4k marker of two weeks previous, a d it remains to be seen whether we will be around the 14.5/15k point on the 18th April.

 

As an aside, shopping is returning to be a nightmare purely due to the queues outside to get into the stores, over an hour long at my local Sainsburys; I rather suspect this will lead to a return to panic buying as people won't want to face the prospect of long queues every day just to get into a store...

 

Edit: UK's 4th April figure is 4,313, in excess of the anticipated 4000 number set two weeks previously by Italy. Italy's 4th April is 15,362, let's see how the UK is doing on the 18th April.

 

So the UK is still almost exactly following Italys figures two weeks later  with our total at 15,464 as of today.

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1 hour ago, sharkfan said:

 

So the UK is still almost exactly following Italys figures two weeks later  with our total at 15,464 as of today.

Even without the uncounted numbers of deaths in care homes and at home, our mortality to infection ratio now exceeds even that of Italy (13.53% v 13.19%). We need to learn how Germany and Austria, for example, can keep that down to 3.0%. And quickly.

I am very aware that people on this very forum have lost family. So discussing the matter in terms of statistics may seem callous. My sincere apologies to anyone who finds these comments offensive.      

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36 minutes ago, whiskychaser said:

Even without the uncounted numbers of deaths in care homes and at home, our mortality to infection ratio now exceeds even that of Italy (13.53% v 13.19%). We need to learn how Germany and Austria, for example, can keep that down to 3.0%. And quickly.

I am very aware that people on this very forum have lost family. So discussing the matter in terms of statistics may seem callous. My sincere apologies to anyone who finds these comments offensive.      

 

I would say to be cautious of the mortality rate, in that it is a measurement of deaths against confirmed cases. The deaths are not disputed but the confirmed cases is likely not a true reflection of fact. The mortality rate is most likely to be more uniform across first world countries, up until the point where a health system becomes inundated.

There are likely a lot more unconfirmed cases in the UK. 13% suggest more than 1 in 8 people infected will die. Thankfully this is not the case, but these types of facts floating around cause undue worry. 

 

It is my guess that the Germans aren't doing anything better than the UK, it's just that the UK have more infections than have been counted. Of course, if a health system gets inundated with cases then mortality rates will unfortunately rise. 

As of the latest info today, Germany have done about 3.75 times as many tests as the UK so they have been able to confirm a higher proportion of cases, and still they have less cases than the UK. This suggests they have a clearer picture of the facts and I think it's likely the UK has 3-4 times as many cases as have been confirmed. I'm basing that on mortality being similar in UK or Germany.

 

Here in Ireland the same calculation puts the mortality rate at 3.7% and a few weeks ago we stopped testing of milder cases due to the backlog. You need to have two symptoms now to be tested, so many mild or asymptomatic cases will remain unconfirmed, which means the mortality rate is likely even lower than stated above. 

 

I'd like to echo your apologies to anyone that has lost friends/family as I'm talking a lot of statistics here too. While I'm unfortunately suggesting there's many more UK cases than recorded I'm also trying to paint a positive note that mortality rates are much lower than the statistics suggest. 

 

Stay safe all.

 

Keliuss

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From family in Germany, It seems that they are clearer in establishing the cause of death... In the UK, if you have CV19 then that is what you have died of, in Germany, even if you have CV19, then there are chances are that you may well have died of something else... Especially if you are elderly. In short, you have died with CV19 not of it....  They also, as already stated test more, so you can see that when playing the numbers game it can appear that for the number of Germans with CV19, less people die of it..

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1 hour ago, Karl said:

From family in Germany, It seems that they are clearer in establishing the cause of death... In the UK, if you have CV19 then that is what you have died of, in Germany, even if you have CV19, then there are chances are that you may well have died of something else... Especially if you are elderly. In short, you have died with CV19 not of it....  They also, as already stated test more, so you can see that when playing the numbers game it can appear that for the number of Germans with CV19, less people die of it..

 

this is why in the UK you need to look at the statistics that are given out by the ONS. The Covid deaths they report are ones where Covid is listed as a possible/one of the reasons for CoD. Not simply, they have Covid and therefore it must have been the cause. 

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3 hours ago, dj1233 said:

 

this is why in the UK you need to look at the statistics that are given out by the ONS. The Covid deaths they report are ones where Covid is listed as a possible/one of the reasons for CoD. Not simply, they have Covid and therefore it must have been the cause. 

The ONS figures include those which are due to or involving Covid. Similarly, the German records include  those diseases which are indirect or direct causes. So we are not talking apples and oranges. 

 

On 18/04/2020 at 18:14, Keliuss said:

 

I think it's likely the UK has 3-4 times as many cases as have been confirmed. I'm basing that on mortality being similar in UK or Germany.

 

That would put the number of infections at about half a million.  That is getting on for more than Italy, Spain and Germany put together. It seems a little unlikely

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, whiskychaser said:

That would put the number of infections at about half a million.  That is getting on for more than Italy, Spain and Germany put together. It seems a little unlikely

 

There have been estimates from Italy that for each confirmed case there are up to 10 unconfirmed. The truth is we may never know. I'm just suggesting that the true mortality rate is highly unlikely to be 13% or worse in the UK when it is 3-4% in comparable countries. The more likely scenario is there are many more cases that are unconfirmed. 

 

Keliuss

Edited by Keliuss

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4 hours ago, sharkfan said:

Good article about 'silent spreaders' here I think...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52840763

Good article and a very good point. Unless someone who is asymptomatic believes they may have had the virus and has an antibody test, they are never going to know. Unfortunately, those tests are still a way off

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Supposedly there was an illegal "rave" not too far from where I live (Kirby) recently - and as for the protests, don't get me started.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8394513/Mindless-mob-dance-inhale-hippy-crack-illegal-woodland-rave-middle-lockdown.html

Edited by AlexGSi2000

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My mother works for the NHS and she recently had an antibody test which came back negative. I remember she was ill with flu/common cold like symptoms in Dec 2019 and I was ill in Jan 2020. This mean either; a) we have not had Covid 19, or b) the antibodies do not last a very long time (less than 5 months). 

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^ Surely this is the key. Test to see who's had it so that we find out if one gets immunity and if so for how long.

 

If you get it a second time them how much better/ worse.

 

Its the unknown isn't it like your mum i was sick over xmas - flu like symptoms, shivering then sweating like a pig (proper soaked) bit of a temp, flu/ cold remedies wouldn't touch it, cough and feeling rough as. This started on 22nd and i was still not right by new year.

 

Covid? Who knows but it would be nice to know.

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