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535i Andrew

Government to ban ICE by 2035 not 2040

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Those in charge have decreed that the previous ban of 2040 is to be brought forward by 5 years to 2035.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123

 

I'll ask once again, where is the power going to come from then?

 

Lets do some back of fag packet/schools boy maths here.

 

In 2018 there were approximately 38.2 million cars on the road/licensed.

Each one on average did 7,600 miles per year

That's 290,320,000,000 miles  driven in the UK in 2018

 

Taking on average the mpg of both petrol and diesel cars of 40mpg

That's 7,258,000,000 gallons of fuel used or 32,951,320,000 litres.

The reason we use liquid fuel and not coal is that its energy dense, you get a lot of bang for your buck or should that be per litre

For each litre of petrol or diesel you get roughly 9.5 kWh of energy released when its burnt.

 

That means our cars on the road require 313,037,540,000 kWh of energy to move them about each year in the UK based on 2018 figures above.  Or 313,037,540 MWh.

 

EDIT to include efficiency of Internal Combustion Engines v Electric motors.

 

Petrol and Diesel engine cars run at around 33% efficiency from the available energy in the fuel to useful energy at the wheels.  Electric cars have an efficiency of say twice that when converting the energy in the battery to useful energy at the wheels.  That means the 313,037,540 MWh is actually only a mere 156,518,770 MWh. 

 

Lets look at electricity generation for a moment.

 

The average output of a nuclear power station in the UK is 1100MW

Lets say each nuclear reactor runs for 8,000 hours each year.

In the UK one nuclear power station can provide each year 8,800,000 MWh of electricity.

 

That means we need 18 nuclear power stations just to power the cars in the UK.  That does not include fridges, freezers, lights, hospitals, schools, computers, industry, the railway, your children's entertainment systems, kettles, washing machine and my Scalextric.

 

Currently there are only 8 nuclear power stations in the UK contributing to powering fridges, freezers, lights, hospitals, schools, computers, industry, the railway, your children's entertainment systems, kettles, washing machine and my Scalextric.

 

The lights will go out unless we get a grip and provide either more power stations or a credible public transport system.

 

The government have announced £500 million for investment into re-opening of the railways shut by Beeching. It costs ~£10 million per mile to re-build/open a railway. 

 

And oh wait a minute, that's of course an electrified railway that the government want.

 

Rant over.

 

Edited by 535i Andrew
EDIT to include efficiency of Internal Combustion Engines v Electric motors.

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It's not gonna happen. Every home will need a rapid charging point, and electric cars will need big subsidiaries. 

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These decisions enable two clear monopolies; battery manufacturers and energy suppliers. 

 

As the decision can't be extended to commercial vehicles, will we all be choosing commercial light trucks for personal transport?

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2 hours ago, sharkfan said:

These decisions enable two clear monopolies; battery manufacturers and energy suppliers. 

 

 

I predict there will be a third.

 

Land purchase.

 

Land adjacent to the motorway network will need to be bought and turned into charging points (car parks essentially) to allow drivers of electric cars to complete their journey.

 

Until you can charge a battery in less than 5 minutes that can hold 400 mile range, then ICE still trumps it.

 

 

 

 

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Devils advocate - The presumption is an electric version of what we have at present, we radically re think personal transport away from the private car.

 

An efficient rail system and public transport with electric private cars or car share used for local trips.

 

With IT improvements the need to commute for most office jobs can be eliminated leaving manufacturing jobs and trades needing to move about for work.

 

Its not sustainable or logical to continue the fifedom of the car.

 

 

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7 hours ago, 535i Andrew said:

Those in charge have decreed that the previous ban of 2040 is to be brought forward by 5 years to 2035.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123

 

I'll ask once again, where is the power going to come from then?

 

Lets do some back of fag packet/schools boy maths here.

 

In 2018 there were approximately 38.2 million cars on the road/licensed.

Each one on average did 7,600 miles per year

That's 290,320,000,000 miles  driven in the UK in 2018

 

Taking on average the mpg of both petrol and diesel cars of 40mpg

That's 7,258,000,000 gallons of fuel used or 32,951,320,000 litres.

The reason we use liquid fuel and not coal is that its energy dense, you get a lot of bang for your buck or should that be per litre

For each litre of petrol or diesel you get roughly 9.5 kWh of energy released when its burnt.

 

That means our cars on the road require 313,037,540,000 kWh of energy to move them about each year in the UK based on 2018 figures above.  Or 313,037,540 MWh.

 

EDIT to include efficiency of Internal Combustion Engines v Electric motors.

 

Petrol and Diesel engine cars run at around 33% efficiency from the available energy in the fuel to useful energy at the wheels.  Electric cars have an efficiency of say twice that when converting the energy in the battery to useful energy at the wheels.  That means the 313,037,540 MWh is actually only a mere 156,518,770 MWh. 

 

Lets look at electricity generation for a moment.

 

The average output of a nuclear power station in the UK is 1100MW

Lets say each nuclear reactor runs for 8,000 hours each year.

In the UK one nuclear power station can provide each year 8,800,000 MWh of electricity.

 

That means we need 18 nuclear power stations just to power the cars in the UK.  That does not include fridges, freezers, lights, hospitals, schools, computers, industry, the railway, your children's entertainment systems, kettles, washing machine and my Scalextric.

 

Currently there are only 8 nuclear power stations in the UK contributing to powering fridges, freezers, lights, hospitals, schools, computers, industry, the railway, your children's entertainment systems, kettles, washing machine and my Scalextric.

 

The lights will go out unless we get a grip and provide either more power stations or a credible public transport system.

 

The government have announced £500 million for investment into re-opening of the railways shut by Beeching. It costs ~£10 million per mile to re-build/open a railway. 

 

And oh wait a minute, that's of course an electrified railway that the government want.

 

Rant over.

 

 

1 US gallon of petrol/diesel requires roughly 5kWh of electricity to refine, that's about 6kWh per UK gallon.

 

An electric car can travel about 4 miles on 1 kWh, so the equivalent of 24 miles per UK gallon.  That does not take into account the cost extraction, distribution etc.  I think your estimate of 40 mpg is a little optimistic, if all vehicles were suddenly converted to electric we would probably need LESS generation than we do now, especially as most cars would be charged at times when there is less demand from industry.

 

 

 

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I predict electric, and IC engines will run side by side for quite a few more years than 15, Boris wouldn't commit, when asked today, but the time will come when new car, hgv, and psv sales are totally electric, no doubt about it.

 

I'm glad that I have most of my motoring with IC engine power.

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47 minutes ago, sharkfan said:

Are there even enough rare minerals to make all the necessary batteries if the entire planet reverts to electric cars?

Possibly, the rare minerals only make up a small part of the batteries. Also battery technology is changing all the time, so in a few years different materials maybe required altogether. 

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Putting production of the electricity to one side I’ve often wondered if cars could use some sort of induction charging. 

 

Have it on motorways for the long distances then battery about town. 

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Just now, duncan-uk said:

Putting production of the electricity to one side I’ve often wondered if cars could use some sort of induction charging. 

 

Have it on motorways for the long distances then battery about town. 

 

What, you mean like a Scaletrix, why not go the whole hog, and put a continuous slot in the motorway for your full sized Scaletrix car. 

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You can get induction charging pads for some cars.  The problem is that you need a very small gap between the car and the induction coil and it's not very efficient.

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Hydrogen is of course the other option which has trickled into the bus industry in Scotland with reasonable success, First Aberdeen are awaiting the next batch of them. Although this time they are getting double deckers as opposed to the single deckers that both them and Stagecoach North Scotland got a few years ago.

 

so the future might not be total electric. Plus what about some other fuel cell type that we haven’t even seen yet......... 

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Andrew,

 

I enjoyed your post. You put a good amount of thought into it. That's why I like maths, it takes away opinion and tells it like it is (or roughly like it is.) Anyway... somewhat off topic, but linked in a strange way. We may not have to worry about Electricity generation to save the planet if there are less humans supposedly creating climate change. What am I on about?

 

The Novel Coronavirus... It's more than doubling the infections number every 5 days. The growth appears to be exponential, not linear. It's compounding at a phenomenal rate. Obviously there are many variables that get in the way of the maths on this... but 24,623 people are currently infected as of today with a death rate of 2%. The infection count increases by 18 to 19% every 24 hours (at the moment). It is thought/estimated that once a new vaccine is found it may take about 3 months to get it ready for use. So if we consider 90 days in 3 months, with a rounded down to 100% increase in infections every 5 days... at best China would be utterly devastated with hundreds of millions lying on their backs with horrendous flu/pneumonia like conditions, at worse the same thing happens globally.

 

Divide 90 days by 5 days, you get 18 times it doubles. Double 24,623 18 times and look at the number. It's hard to believe in 3 months it could hit 5 Billion people, so my sensible head says something unexpected will happen to stop it's rate of infections... a vaccine might be quicker, China's lock down policy on cities might actually work (although it's failing as we speak)  the other 27 countries the new virus is already in may quarantine better than the Chinese did in the early stages. etc etc

 

But if efforts to contain it fail... this looks like it has the potential to be a Global Pandemic to me. A 2% death rate on a gigantic number is worse than a 10% death rate on a small number. I also read that the Virus has an attack rate of 4.08 meaning that for every new case, it is expected that 4.08 more people (on average) will catch the virus. And on top of this, the more the Virus infects, the more it replicates and the more chance there is of mistakes in the copying process leading to a deadly mutation... this happened with the wrongly names Spanish flu... it mutated to start killing young adults and youth by triggering a Cytokine storm in their immune systems which lead to their deaths.

 

:-(

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I think this may cripple the global economy. Even if it stays relatively small outside China... China supplies most of the world with cheap goods outsourced to it for cheap production. If it's crippled so is the supply chain.

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4 hours ago, Username_Taken said:

Andrew,

 

I enjoyed your post. You put a good amount of thought into it. That's why I like maths, it takes away opinion and tells it like it is (or roughly like it is.) Anyway... somewhat off topic, but linked in a strange way. We may not have to worry about Electricity generation to save the planet if there are less humans supposedly creating climate change. What am I on about?

 

The Novel Coronavirus... It's more than doubling the infections number every 5 days. The growth appears to be exponential, not linear. It's compounding at a phenomenal rate. Obviously there are many variables that get in the way of the maths on this... but 24,623 people are currently infected as of today with a death rate of 2%. The infection count increases by 18 to 19% every 24 hours (at the moment). It is thought/estimated that once a new vaccine is found it may take about 3 months to get it ready for use. So if we consider 90 days in 3 months, with a rounded down to 100% increase in infections every 5 days... at best China would be utterly devastated with hundreds of millions lying on their backs with horrendous flu/pneumonia like conditions, at worse the same thing happens globally.

 

Divide 90 days by 5 days, you get 18 times it doubles. Double 24,623 18 times and look at the number. It's hard to believe in 3 months it could hit 5 Billion people, so my sensible head says something unexpected will happen to stop it's rate of infections... a vaccine might be quicker, China's lock down policy on cities might actually work (although it's failing as we speak)  the other 27 countries the new virus is already in may quarantine better than the Chinese did in the early stages. etc etc

 

But if efforts to contain it fail... this looks like it has the potential to be a Global Pandemic to me. A 2% death rate on a gigantic number is worse than a 10% death rate on a small number. I also read that the Virus has an attack rate of 4.08 meaning that for every new case, it is expected that 4.08 more people (on average) will catch the virus. And on top of this, the more the Virus infects, the more it replicates and the more chance there is of mistakes in the copying process leading to a deadly mutation... this happened with the wrongly names Spanish flu... it mutated to start killing young adults and youth by triggering a Cytokine storm in their immune systems which lead to their deaths.

 

:-(

 

 

It's certainly quite frightening. At what point will folk here start bulk buying dry/canned food and not going out - it is after all in the UK already. 

 

Meanwhile......

 

https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2020/02/03/we-import-goods-from-china-fears-over-coronavirus-are-hitting-our-business-hard/

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Meanwhile, anyone mentioned LPG? It may not be suitable for huge consumption as petrol/diesel is, but it's an option for classic cars when the time comes. 

 

Hydrogen requires a lot of electricity to produce as it stands. BMW tried it 25 years ago and it fell on its arse. A massive tank where the rear seats were is a bit of an impediment. 

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@Username_Taken, I’ve had a few episodes of Corona virus myself. Normally on a Sunday morning after a good Saturday night. :P
 

I’ve been refining my maths, (it was never my strongest subject at school as I was too easily distracted by my maths teachers arse. Yes it was a woman!) to take into account electric cars using electricity up at the rate of ~3 miles per kWh. Which still means something like 11 additional 1100MW nuclear power stations are required. Just for the cars. 

 

Also the lunatics want all new homes to be gas free. So that 30kW gas boiler I’ve got then becomes the equivalent in electric. 
 

Meanwhile I’ll just throw another log on my fire! 

 

 

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